Tuesday, March 26, 2013

2013 MLB Preview

AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. New York Yankees
5. Boston Red Sox

So, the AL East is gonna be insane this year. The Tampa Bay Rays need to find a way to hit better, and top MLB prospect Wil Myers may just be the answer. Having Evan Longoria healthy for an entire season surely wouldn't hurt either. Their base running and game management is top notch though, and their pitching, starting and relief, still may be the best in the division, even with the loss of James Shields. Toronto acquired pretty much every star the Miami Marlins had at the end of last year with the exception of Giancarlo Stanton, and also gained 2012 NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey and Melky Cabrera, coming off a batting title stained by PEDs. On paper, they are the best team in the East. I just don't necessarily believe buying a championship will work in a division that Joe Madden and the Rays are in. Baltimore stunned last year, and offensively could be even better this year as their young talent continues to mature. The rotation is too and experienced to make another run in the playoffs this year, but they are looking good for the years to come. The Yankees are SO injured and SO old, and that is going to lead them to still winning maybe 85 or so games, but missing the playoffs, and thus being a disgrace to their unrealistically expectant fans. Weirdly, the Red Sox are sort of rebuilding, and they will surely be better than they were last year, but still should finish last place here. The offense should be just fine, but that pitching could be atrocious.

AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Kansas City Royals
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Minnesota Twins

The Detroit Tigers MIGHT have the best lineup in the AL, and definitely have the best starting rotation. While the Royals and Indians got better and should offer up more competition in the division, the Tigers should have an easy time winning it, and potentially partake in their second World Series in a row. However, remember how easy last year was supposed to be? The team still has its loose ends to tie up (defense, bullpen), which hopefully will be set by the trade deadline, but the good here FAR outweighs the bad. Everyone should know by now that the Royals can bat, and at the expense of Wil Myers, their rotation is relatively formidable now with James Shields and Ervin Santana on board. A bunch of White Sox over performed in 2012, and Paul Konerko did his usual thing, and I just don't see that happening in 2013. Chris Sale and Jake Peavy should keep this team either just above or just below the .500 mark. Yes, adding Nick Swisher was a smooth move for the Indians, but it doesn't help THAT much when their rotation is a complete disaster. Maybe Trevor Bauer can help that. Minnesota still has the best pure hitting catcher in Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau went through a nice revival, but that team still sucks. Remember in 2010 when they won 94 games?

AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Texas Rangers
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Houston Astros

Adding Josh Hamilton to the already stellar duo of Albert Pujols and Mike Trout puts the Los Angeles Angels at the top of the AL West. Sure, their pitching is questionable, but, that could also work out if C.J. Wilson returns to form and they can figure out how their bullpen should work. Despite the loss of Hamilton, the Texas Rangers batting is still dangerous as all hell. Adrian Beltre is coming off a season where he would have won the MVP award if Trout or Miguel Cabrera didn't exist. If Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus and Nelson Cruz continue their production of late, and the newer and more risky pieces fall into place like they should, Texas will not give up the division title without a fight, especially if their young pitching staff continues to solidify. It's hard to say if the Oakland A's or Baltimore Orioles were more surprising in 2012, but I'd bet on the A's. Now, which team is more likely to keep it up? That is an even better question. The Oakland hitters are young and flawed, but Yoenis Cespedes is already looking like a future superstar. Their young pitching staff is the strength here, and it will be fun to see how they continue to grow. The Seattle Mariners are on the upswing, and with the addition of Michael Morse could be sneaky scary. The pitching will be what keeps them from reaching true contention, even with Felix Hernandez leading the way. This will be the Houston Astros' first year in the American League, and they will get slaughtered.

NL East
1. Washington Nationals
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. New York Mets
5. Miami Marlins

I have to think that the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves might be the two best teams overall in baseball. With the extra pieces they added, the general ridiculousness of their rotation and bullpen, and being no victim to no more innings limits on Stephen Strasburg, the Nationals are built for a World Series championship NOW. The Braves are not far off by any means. They are almost just as stacked, and adding the Upton brothers (Justin and B.J.) is the icing on the cake. If Kris Medlen is half as good as he was in 2012, tis rotation is completely terrifying. And to think that they get Brandon Beachy back around the All-Star break, whew. The Phillies are on the verge of rebuilding, but as things stand, they can still compete. Cole Hamels has come into his own as the team's ace, and Cliff Lee seems to only get better as he gets older. It's unfortunate that Roy Halladay seems to be on his way out. Their window for a World Series championship has officially closed. The Mets and Marlins are both non-factors this year, and each only have one outright bright spot (David Wright and Giancarlo Stanton, respectively).

NL Central
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Chicago Cubs

I am 100% behind the recent decision to keep Aroldis Chapman as the Reds' closer, though it would have been a blast to watch him in the starting rotation. Thing is, they don't need him there, thanks to the young, talented guys they already have there. They finally have a quality centerfielder/leadoff man in Shin-Soo Choo, and throwing him in the mix with perennial MVP candidate Joey Votto, Brandon Phillps, Jay Bruce, etc. gives Cincinnati everything they need to repeat as NL Central champs, and maybe even more. They may have to deal with the lack of Chris Carpenter for another season, but the St. Louis Cardinals are still very good, and cannot be counted out when discussing the playoffs. If Jon Jay and Allen Craig are the real deal (my bet is that at least Craig IS), they should produce plenty of runs again, and perhaps at a more consistent rate in 2013. Their pitching is weaker than it could be, but Adam Wainwright should completely kill in his second year back from Tommy John surgery. If Ryan Braun gets in trouble for his latest PED accusations, then the Pittsburgh Pirates get third place. I'm going to assume that Braun is fine, though, and that being the case, Milwaukee's offense is golden, as it has been the past few years. Braun has a quality crew of supporting guys that will hit plenty of home runs and produce runs in other ways. It's the pitching, especially the bullpen, that is the problem. I just found out today they signed Kyle Lohse, which will certainly help Yovani Gallardo and the rest of the young, flawed, yet talented rotation. Closer John Axford had a terrible year in 2012, and beyond him, the bullpen is in rough shape. I don't have quite as much faith as a lot of other people seem to have in the Pittsburgh Pirates. Their offense has come together, and Andrew McCutchen is still improving, which is insane. Their rotation and bullpen could go either way though. They very well could finally break their streak of seasons with a losing record, but they will not compete for a playoff spot. The Cubs have some very exciting young players in Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo and Jeff Samardzija, but they are still several years away from being good.

NL West
1. San Francisco Giants
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Diego Padres

Yes, the Dodgers lineup is basically a sort of 2009 All-Star team thanks to their trades with the Marlins and Red Sox before the trade deadline last year, giving them not only the highest payroll in 2013, but the highest in history. However, injuries heading into the start of the season may be the death of him. If everything works out with Carl Crawford, Hanley Ramirez, and Zack Greinke, and considering that they also have Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez, and the best pitcher in the NL, Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers very well could win the NL West. However, my bet is on the San Francisco Giants, who return just about everybody from their 2012 World Series championship team. Sure, they don't have the most productive, exciting offense, but there defense is among the best in the majors, and the only rotation and bullpen that is better than theirs is Washington, and MAYBE Atlanta. If Tim Lincecum can return to pre-2012 form, the West is theirs, guaranteed. The Diamondbacks traded away Justin Upton, and though they still have plenty of talent on offense and on the mound, it's going to be another down year for them. The Rockies and Padres seem to randomly compete in this division every so often, and if either of them is going to do it, it's Colorado, as their offense could potentially be sickening if they can get full seasons out of Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Their pitching is virtually non-existent, as is the Padres'. Chase Headley was a revelation to them in 2012, but he's going to be doing some time on the DL, and they don't have much hope anywhere else.

AL Wild Card Game
Toronto Blue Jays over Texas Rangers

NL Wild Card Game
Atlanta Braves over Los Angeles Dodgers

ALDS
Detroit Tigers over Toronto Blue Jays, 3-1
Los Angeles Angels over Tampa Bay Rays, 3-2

NLDS
Washington Nationals over Atlanta Braves, 3-2
Cincinnati Reds over San Francisco Giants, 3-2

ALCS
Detroit Tigers over Los Angeles Angels, 4-2

NLCS
Washington Nationals over Cincinnati Reds, 4-2

World Series
Washington Nationals over Detroit Tigers, 4-3

AL Rookie of the Year - Wil Myers, Tampa Bay
AL Comeback Player of the Year - Victor Martinez, Detroit
AL Cy Young - Justin Verlander, Detroit
AL MVP - Mike Trout, Los Angeles

NL Rookie of the Year - Shelby Miller, St. Louis
NL Comeback Player of the Year - Ryan Howard, Philadelphia
NL Cy Young - Stephen Strasburg, Washington
NL MVP - Matt Kemp, Los Angeles